Arsenal Tula 2–1 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tekstilshchik

K. Gotsuk 70'

R. Magomedov 68'

A. Filev 45'

7/13/2026

First League · Round 1Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Arsenal Tula51%

×Draw28%

Tekstilshchik22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.80

Arsenal Tula

1.39

Tekstilshchik

0.80

Arsenal Tula creates 74% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 9 away

1.10

creates per match

0.67

0.92

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.10

Tekstilshchik

0.67

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

0.92

Tekstilshchik

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

78%

Arsenal Tula or Tekstilshchik

72%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

49%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

25%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

75%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

40%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

16%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

55%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

19%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

70%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.10 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tekstilshchik attack 0.67 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

51%

level

28%

Tekstilshchik scores more

22%

Arsenal Tula at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

I. Ivanov← O. Rosputko

14'

17'

33'

39'

45'

46'

D. Plotnikov← O. Isaenko

46'

D. Gagua← V. Danube

59'

A. Pomalyuk← A. Dzhebov

68'

R. Magomedov

70'

K. Gotsuk

71'

A. Korneev← E. Gulyaev

71'

M. Noskov← A. Filev

77'

D. Davidyan← E. Reyes

77'

M. Brnovic← I. Gorbunov

80'

T. Melekestsev← R. Magomedov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ArsenalTekstilshchik

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots5

3Corners3

Shots

7Total Shots5

5On Target2

2Off Target3

0Blocked0

Passing

59%Possession41%

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0