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Tekstilshchik vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
11/9/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 17Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tekstilshchik50%
×Draw26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.48
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.91

Tekstilshchik creates 63% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.78

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.04
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
77%
Tekstilshchik or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
74%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
50%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
25%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
77%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
43%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
60%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
23%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
68%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.41 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 0.78 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
50%
level
26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
23%

Tekstilshchik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Tekstilshchik beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.