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Tekstilac Ravnice vs HAŠK — League #216 2026

Tekstilac Ravnice
Tekstilac Ravnice
FT
3 – 1
HAŠK
HAŠK
9/21/2024League #216League #216 · Center - 4Stadion NK Tekstilac Ravnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tekstilac Ravnice53%
×Draw23%
HAŠK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Ravnice
1.88
HAŠK
1.21

Tekstilac Ravnice creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Ravnice
2.00
HAŠK
0.76

allows per match

Tekstilac Ravnice
1.67
HAŠK
1.76

finishing

Tekstilac Ravnice+0.00on par
HAŠK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Ravnice ↓

HAŠK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tekstilac Ravnice or draw
75%
Tekstilac Ravnice or HAŠK
77%
Draw or HAŠK
47%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Ravnice wins by 2+
30%
HAŠK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tekstilac Ravnice 1+ goals
85%
Tekstilac Ravnice 2+ goals
56%
Tekstilac Ravnice 3+ goals
29%
HAŠK 1+ goals
70%
HAŠK 2+ goals
34%
HAŠK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Ravnice (draw refunded)
68%
HAŠK (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Ravnice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

HAŠK away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Ravnice attack 2.00 + HAŠK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

HAŠK attack 0.76 + Tekstilac Ravnice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tekstilac Ravnice scores more
53%
level
23%
HAŠK scores more
25%

Tekstilac Ravnice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tekstilac Ravnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Ravnice vs HAŠK

Tekstilac Ravnice beat HAŠK 3-1 in League #216 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NK Tekstilac Ravnice in Zagreb.