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Tekstilac Odžaci vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
3/1/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 22Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci60%
×Draw22%
RFK Novi Sad18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.95
RFK Novi Sad
0.97

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 101% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.10
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
82%
Tekstilac Odžaci or RFK Novi Sad
78%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
40%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
36%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
86%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
58%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
31%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
62%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
25%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
77%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.95

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
60%
level
22%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
18%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs RFK Novi Sad

Tekstilac Odžaci beat RFK Novi Sad 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.