Tekstilac Odžaci 2–0 Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

Tekstilac Odžaci

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

5/7/2024

Prva Liga · Championship Round - 4Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci46%

×Draw28%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac OdžaciExpected goals in this matchRadnički Sr. Mitrovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.96

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.36

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

0.96

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 91 away

1.54

creates per match

0.82

1.10

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.54

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

0.82

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.10

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw

74%

Tekstilac Odžaci or Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

72%

Draw or Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

54%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+

22%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals

74%

Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals

39%

Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals

16%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1+ goals

62%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 2+ goals

25%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)

63%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + Radnički Sr. Mitrovica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica attack 0.82 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more

46%

level

28%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica scores more

26%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff