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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
4/8/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 29Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci38%
×Draw29%
Mladost Novi Sad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.16
Mladost Novi Sad
1.04

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 12% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.10
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
68%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Mladost Novi Sad
71%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
62%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
16%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
69%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
32%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
11%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
65%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
28%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
54%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
38%
level
29%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
32%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat Tekstilac Odžaci 2-1 in Prva Liga on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.