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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Kolubara — Prva Liga 2018

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kolubara
Kolubara
10/8/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 11Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci41%
×Draw27%
Kolubara32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.33
Kolubara
1.14

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 17% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 50 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
Kolubara
1.18

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.10
Kolubara
1.12

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Kolubara+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Kolubara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
68%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Kolubara
73%
Draw or Kolubara
59%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
19%
Kolubara wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
74%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
38%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
15%
Kolubara 1+ goals
68%
Kolubara 2+ goals
32%
Kolubara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
56%
Kolubara (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Kolubara away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + Kolubara defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kolubara attack 1.18 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
41%
level
27%
Kolubara scores more
32%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Tekstilac Odžaci 0–1 Kolubara

Kolubara beat Tekstilac Odžaci 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.