Tekstilac Odžaci 2–3 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Tekstilac Odžaci

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Jedinstvo Ub

I. Hadžić 62'

I. Davidović 3'

N. Marjanović 73' (OG)

R. Denzell 61'

S. Rakić 21'

5/10/2025

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci49%

×Draw24%

Jedinstvo Ub27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac OdžaciExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.16

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.66

Jedinstvo Ub

1.16

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

0.89

creates per match

0.74

1.58

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci

0.89

Jedinstvo Ub

0.74

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.58

Jedinstvo Ub

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw

73%

Tekstilac Odžaci or Jedinstvo Ub

76%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

51%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+

26%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals

81%

Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals

49%

Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals

23%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

69%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

32%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)

65%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.89 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.66

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more

49%

level

24%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

27%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

N. Ninković

Tekstilac Odžaci · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

I. Davidović

21'

S. Rakić↳ I. Abass

61'

R. Denzell↳ U. Savković

62'

I. Hadžić↳ N. Ninković

63'

N. Skrobonja← S. Stojanović

64'

M. Zekić← N. Ninković

70'

L. Mladenović← M. Mitrović

73'

N. MarjanovićOwn goal

76'

U. Stamenić← L. Vasić

76'

V. Trifunović← I. Davidović

76'

L. Zhordania← V. Kijevčanin

78'

Luka Mladenović

90+6'

R. Lazić← R. Denzell

90+5'

I. Jovanović← J. Bengui-João

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TekstilacJedinstvo

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

5Corners0

15Fouls22

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target3

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

435Total Passes318

356Accurate Passes247

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls22

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5