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Tekstilac Odžaci vs HNK Gorica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
M. Les 72'
1/14/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci22%
×Draw26%
HNK Gorica51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.89
HNK Gorica
1.50

HNK Gorica creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.67
HNK Gorica
1.67

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.33
HNK Gorica
1.11

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
49%
Tekstilac Odžaci or HNK Gorica
74%
Draw or HNK Gorica
78%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
7%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
59%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
22%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
6%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
78%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
44%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
30%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.67 + HNK Gorica defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

HNK Gorica attack 1.67 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
22%
level
26%
HNK Gorica scores more
51%

HNK Gorica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
M. Les

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Tekstilac Odžaci 0–1 HNK Gorica

HNK Gorica beat Tekstilac Odžaci 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Les (72').