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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
1 – 0
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
9/24/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci63%
×Draw21%
Hajduk 1912 Kula17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.06
Hajduk 1912 Kula
0.95

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 117% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.37
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
83%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Hajduk 1912 Kula
79%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
37%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
39%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
87%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
61%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
34%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
61%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
79%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 2.37 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
63%
level
21%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
17%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs Hajduk 1912 Kula

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.