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Tekstilac Odžaci vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
4 – 0
FK Becej
FK Becej
3/12/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci70%
×Draw17%
FK Becej13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.43
FK Becej
0.94

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 159% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 88 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.37
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
87%
Tekstilac Odžaci or FK Becej
83%
Draw or FK Becej
30%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
47%
FK Becej wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
91%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
69%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
43%
FK Becej 1+ goals
61%
FK Becej 2+ goals
24%
FK Becej 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
84%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 2.37 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.43

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
70%
level
17%
FK Becej scores more
13%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs FK Becej

Tekstilac Odžaci beat FK Becej 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.