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Tekstilac Derventa vs Željezničar Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
FT
0 – 0
Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
4/17/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 23Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa52%
×Draw26%
Željezničar Banja Luka23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Derventa
1.54
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.92

Tekstilac Derventa creates 67% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 87 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.26
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.82

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.02
Željezničar Banja Luka
1.83

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par
Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw
77%
Tekstilac Derventa or Željezničar Banja Luka
74%
Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka
48%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
27%
Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
79%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
45%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
20%
Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
60%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
23%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
70%
Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more
52%
level
26%
Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
23%

Tekstilac Derventa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Tekstilac Derventa 0–0 Željezničar Banja Luka

Tekstilac Derventa and Željezničar Banja Luka drew 0-0 in 1st League - RS on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tekstilac in Derventa.