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Tekstilac Derventa vs Omarska — 1st League - RS 2019

Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
FT
1 – 0
Omarska
Omarska
10/23/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 11Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa61%
×Draw21%
Omarska17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Derventa
1.97
Omarska
0.94

Tekstilac Derventa creates 110% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 65 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.26
Omarska
0.86

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.02
Omarska
2.68

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par
Omarska+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Omarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw
83%
Tekstilac Derventa or Omarska
79%
Draw or Omarska
39%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
37%
Omarska wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
86%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
58%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
31%
Omarska 1+ goals
61%
Omarska 2+ goals
24%
Omarska 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
78%
Omarska (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Omarska away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.68 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Omarska defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.97

Omarska attack 0.86 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more
61%
level
21%
Omarska scores more
17%

Tekstilac Derventa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Derventa vs Omarska

Tekstilac Derventa beat Omarska 1-0 in 1st League - RS on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tekstilac in Derventa.