Tekstilac Derventa 0–2 Krupa na Vrbasu

Tekstilac Derventa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Krupa na Vrbasu

10/5/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 11Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa25%

×Draw27%

Krupa na Vrbasu48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac DerventaExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.41

Tekstilac Derventa

0.95

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.41

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 48% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 39 away

1.26

creates per match

1.79

1.02

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.26

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.79

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.02

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw

52%

Tekstilac Derventa or Krupa na Vrbasu

73%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

75%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

9%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

61%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

25%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

7%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

76%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

41%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

35%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.95

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

25%

level

27%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

48%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff