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Tekstilac Derventa vs Kozara Gradiška — 1st League - RS 2019

Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
FT
1 – 0
Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
3/27/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 19Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa50%
×Draw26%
Kozara Gradiška24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Derventa
1.47
Kozara Gradiška
0.93

Tekstilac Derventa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 104 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.26
Kozara Gradiška
0.84

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.02
Kozara Gradiška
1.68

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par
Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Kozara Gradiška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw
76%
Tekstilac Derventa or Kozara Gradiška
74%
Draw or Kozara Gradiška
50%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
25%
Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
77%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
43%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
18%
Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
61%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
24%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
68%
Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Kozara Gradiška away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kozara Gradiška attack 0.84 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more
50%
level
26%
Kozara Gradiška scores more
24%

Tekstilac Derventa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Derventa vs Kozara Gradiška

Tekstilac Derventa beat Kozara Gradiška 1-0 in 1st League - RS on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tekstilac in Derventa.