Tekstilac Derventa 2–1 Drina Zvornik

Tekstilac Derventa

FT

2 – 1

Drina Zvornik

5/10/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 27Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa53%

×Draw26%

Drina Zvornik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac DerventaExpected goals in this matchDrina Zvornik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.86

Tekstilac Derventa

1.54

Drina Zvornik

0.86

Tekstilac Derventa creates 79% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 96 away

1.26

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.26

Drina Zvornik

0.71

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.02

Drina Zvornik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Drina Zvornik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw

79%

Tekstilac Derventa or Drina Zvornik

74%

Draw or Drina Zvornik

47%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

28%

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

79%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

45%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

20%

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

58%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

21%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

72%

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

53%

level

26%

Drina Zvornik scores more

21%

Tekstilac Derventa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff