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TEK Sloga vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

TEK Sloga
TEK Sloga
FT
1 – 0
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
11/7/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 16Stadion TEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

TEK Sloga57%
×Draw23%
Crvena Zvezda MML20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEK Sloga
1.77
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.95

TEK Sloga creates 86% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 27 away

creates per match

TEK Sloga
1.53
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

TEK Sloga
1.09
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

TEK Sloga+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEK Sloga ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

TEK Sloga or draw
80%
TEK Sloga or Crvena Zvezda MML
77%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
43%

Winning margin

TEK Sloga wins by 2+
32%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

TEK Sloga 1+ goals
83%
TEK Sloga 2+ goals
53%
TEK Sloga 3+ goals
26%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
61%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
25%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

TEK Sloga (draw refunded)
74%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEK Sloga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 43 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEK Sloga attack 1.53 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + TEK Sloga defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

TEK Sloga scores more
57%
level
23%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
20%

TEK Sloga at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "TEK Sloga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: TEK Sloga 1–0 Crvena Zvezda MML

TEK Sloga beat Crvena Zvezda MML 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion TEK in Veliki Crljeni.