Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TEK Sloga vs BSK Batajnica — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

TEK Sloga
TEK Sloga
FT
2 – 1
BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
5/14/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 34Stadion TEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

TEK Sloga66%
×Draw20%
BSK Batajnica14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEK Sloga
2.06
BSK Batajnica
0.81

TEK Sloga creates 154% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

TEK Sloga
1.53
BSK Batajnica
0.53

allows per match

TEK Sloga
1.09
BSK Batajnica
2.58

finishing

TEK Sloga+0.00on par
BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEK Sloga ↓

BSK Batajnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TEK Sloga or draw
86%
TEK Sloga or BSK Batajnica
80%
Draw or BSK Batajnica
34%

Winning margin

TEK Sloga wins by 2+
42%
BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

TEK Sloga 1+ goals
87%
TEK Sloga 2+ goals
61%
TEK Sloga 3+ goals
34%
BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
56%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
19%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TEK Sloga (draw refunded)
83%
BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEK Sloga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 43 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEK Sloga attack 1.53 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.06

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + TEK Sloga defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

TEK Sloga scores more
66%
level
20%
BSK Batajnica scores more
14%

TEK Sloga at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "TEK Sloga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: TEK Sloga 2–1 BSK Batajnica

TEK Sloga beat BSK Batajnica 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion TEK in Veliki Crljeni.