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Teixeira de Freitas vs Vitoria Da Conquista — Baiano - 2 2019

Teixeira de Freitas
Teixeira de Freitas
FT
0 – 1
Vitoria Da Conquista
Vitoria Da Conquista
5/24/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Teixeira de Freitas13%
×Draw24%
Vitoria Da Conquista63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teixeira de Freitas
0.58
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.64

Vitoria Da Conquista creates 183% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Teixeira de Freitas
0.00
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.28

allows per match

Teixeira de Freitas
2.00
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.17

finishing

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par
Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teixeira de Freitas ↓

Vitoria Da Conquista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–118%
0–215%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Teixeira de Freitas or draw
37%
Teixeira de Freitas or Vitoria Da Conquista
76%
Draw or Vitoria Da Conquista
87%

Winning margin

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+
3%
Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals
44%
Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals
12%
Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals
2%
Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals
81%
Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals
49%
Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)
17%
Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teixeira de Freitas at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Vitoria Da Conquista away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.58

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.28 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Teixeira de Freitas scores more
13%
level
24%
Vitoria Da Conquista scores more
63%

Vitoria Da Conquista at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vitoria Da Conquista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Teixeira de Freitas 0–1 Vitoria Da Conquista

Vitoria Da Conquista beat Teixeira de Freitas 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.