Teixeira de Freitas 0–3 Jequié: Result & Stats

Teixeira de Freitas

FT

0 – 3

Jequié

11/1/2020

Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Municipal Antônio Rodrigues Santana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Teixeira de Freitas11%

×Draw24%

Jequié65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teixeira de FreitasExpected goals in this matchJequié

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.47

1.60

Teixeira de Freitas

0.47

Jequié

1.60

Jequié creates 240% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

0.00

creates per match

1.21

2.00

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Teixeira de Freitas

0.00

Jequié

1.21

allows per match

Teixeira de Freitas

2.00

Jequié

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Jequié+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teixeira de Freitas ↓

Jequié →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–120%

0–216%

0–39%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Teixeira de Freitas or draw

35%

Teixeira de Freitas or Jequié

76%

Draw or Jequié

89%

Winning margin

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+

2%

Jequié wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals

37%

Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals

8%

Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals

1%

Jequié 1+ goals

80%

Jequié 2+ goals

47%

Jequié 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)

14%

Jequié (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teixeira de Freitas at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Jequié away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Jequié defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.47

Jequié attack 1.21 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Teixeira de Freitas scores more

11%

level

24%

Jequié scores more

65%

Jequié at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jequié will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff