Teixeira de Freitas 0–0 Grapiuna Itabuna

Teixeira de Freitas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grapiuna Itabuna

5/3/2025

Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Teixeira de Freitas19%

×Draw27%

Grapiuna Itabuna54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teixeira de FreitasExpected goals in this matchGrapiuna Itabuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.43

Teixeira de Freitas

0.73

Grapiuna Itabuna

1.43

Grapiuna Itabuna creates 96% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 26 away

0.00

creates per match

0.85

2.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Teixeira de Freitas

0.00

Grapiuna Itabuna

0.85

allows per match

Teixeira de Freitas

2.00

Grapiuna Itabuna

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teixeira de Freitas ↓

Grapiuna Itabuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Teixeira de Freitas or draw

46%

Teixeira de Freitas or Grapiuna Itabuna

73%

Draw or Grapiuna Itabuna

81%

Winning margin

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+

5%

Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals

52%

Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals

17%

Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals

4%

Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals

76%

Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals

42%

Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)

26%

Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teixeira de Freitas at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Grapiuna Itabuna away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.85 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Teixeira de Freitas scores more

19%

level

27%

Grapiuna Itabuna scores more

54%

Grapiuna Itabuna at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Grapiuna Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff