Teixeira de Freitas vs Galícia

Teixeira de Freitas

AWD

0 – 3

Galícia

6/29/2025

Baiano - 2 · Round 9Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Teixeira de Freitas18%

×Draw25%

Galícia57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teixeira de FreitasExpected goals in this matchGalícia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.58

Teixeira de Freitas

0.77

Galícia

1.58

Galícia creates 105% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

0.00

creates per match

1.16

2.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Teixeira de Freitas

0.00

Galícia

1.16

allows per match

Teixeira de Freitas

2.00

Galícia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Galícia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teixeira de Freitas ↓

Galícia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Teixeira de Freitas or draw

43%

Teixeira de Freitas or Galícia

75%

Draw or Galícia

82%

Winning margin

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+

5%

Galícia wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals

54%

Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals

18%

Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals

4%

Galícia 1+ goals

79%

Galícia 2+ goals

47%

Galícia 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)

24%

Galícia (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teixeira de Freitas at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Galícia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Galícia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Galícia attack 1.16 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Teixeira de Freitas scores more

18%

level

25%

Galícia scores more

57%

Galícia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Galícia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff