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Teixeira de Freitas vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

Teixeira de Freitas
Teixeira de Freitas
FT
0 – 3
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
11/18/2020Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Municipal Antônio Rodrigues Santana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Teixeira de Freitas8%
×Draw21%
Colo Colo71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teixeira de Freitas
0.41
Colo Colo
1.79

Colo Colo creates 337% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Teixeira de Freitas
0.00
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

Teixeira de Freitas
2.00
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teixeira de Freitas ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–120%
0–218%
0–311%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Teixeira de Freitas or draw
29%
Teixeira de Freitas or Colo Colo
79%
Draw or Colo Colo
92%

Winning margin

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+
1%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals
34%
Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals
6%
Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals
1%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
83%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
53%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)
10%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teixeira de Freitas at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.41

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Teixeira de Freitas scores more
8%
level
21%
Colo Colo scores more
71%

Colo Colo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teixeira de Freitas vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Teixeira de Freitas 3-0 in Baiano - 2 on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Rodrigues Santana in Teixeira de Freitas, Bahia.