Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tedeón vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Tedeón
Tedeón
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
River Ebro
River Ebro
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 32Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tedeón40%
×Draw26%
River Ebro34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tedeón
1.40
River Ebro
1.25

Tedeón creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 93 away

creates per match

Tedeón
0.88
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Tedeón
1.41
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw
66%
Tedeón or River Ebro
74%
Draw or River Ebro
60%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+
19%
River Ebro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals
75%
Tedeón 2+ goals
41%
Tedeón 3+ goals
17%
River Ebro 1+ goals
71%
River Ebro 2+ goals
36%
River Ebro 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)
55%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tedeón scores more
40%
level
26%
River Ebro scores more
34%

Tedeón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tedeón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Tedeón 0–1 River Ebro

River Ebro beat Tedeón 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Navarrete.