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Tedeón vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Tedeón
Tedeón
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
1/27/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tedeón30%
×Draw26%
Racing Rioja43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tedeón
1.16
Racing Rioja
1.44

Racing Rioja creates 24% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tedeón
0.88
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Tedeón
1.41
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw
57%
Tedeón or Racing Rioja
74%
Draw or Racing Rioja
70%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+
12%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals
69%
Tedeón 2+ goals
32%
Tedeón 3+ goals
11%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
76%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
42%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)
41%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tedeón scores more
30%
level
26%
Racing Rioja scores more
43%

Racing Rioja at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tedeón vs Racing Rioja

Racing Rioja beat Tedeón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Navarrete.