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Tedeón vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Tedeón
Tedeón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Calzada
La Calzada
2/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 22Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tedeón34%
×Draw27%
La Calzada39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tedeón
1.18
La Calzada
1.30

La Calzada creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 108 away

creates per match

Tedeón
0.88
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Tedeón
1.41
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw
61%
Tedeón or La Calzada
73%
Draw or La Calzada
66%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+
14%
La Calzada wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals
69%
Tedeón 2+ goals
33%
Tedeón 3+ goals
12%
La Calzada 1+ goals
73%
La Calzada 2+ goals
37%
La Calzada 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)
46%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tedeón scores more
34%
level
27%
La Calzada scores more
39%

La Calzada at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Tedeón 1–1 La Calzada

Tedeón and La Calzada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Navarrete.