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Tedeón vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Tedeón
Tedeón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
3/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 24Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tedeón38%
×Draw28%
Haro Deportivo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tedeón
1.24
Haro Deportivo
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 81 away

creates per match

Tedeón
0.88
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Tedeón
1.41
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw
65%
Tedeón or Haro Deportivo
72%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
62%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+
16%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals
71%
Tedeón 2+ goals
35%
Tedeón 3+ goals
13%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
69%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
33%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)
52%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tedeón scores more
38%
level
28%
Haro Deportivo scores more
35%

Tedeón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tedeón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tedeón vs Haro Deportivo

Tedeón and Haro Deportivo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Navarrete.