Tedeón 0–2 Alfaro: Result & Stats

Tedeón

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alfaro

10/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tedeón24%

×Draw25%

Alfaro51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TedeónExpected goals in this matchAlfaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.60

Tedeón

1.01

Alfaro

1.60

Alfaro creates 58% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 59 away

0.88

creates per match

1.80

1.41

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Tedeón

0.88

Alfaro

1.80

allows per match

Tedeón

1.41

Alfaro

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par

Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

Alfaro →

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw

49%

Tedeón or Alfaro

75%

Draw or Alfaro

76%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+

Alfaro wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals

64%

Tedeón 2+ goals

27%

Tedeón 3+ goals

Alfaro 1+ goals

80%

Alfaro 2+ goals

47%

Alfaro 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)

32%

Alfaro (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tedeón scores more

24%

level

25%

Alfaro scores more

51%

Alfaro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff