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Tedeón vs Alberite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Tedeón
Tedeón
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alberite
Alberite
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 9Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tedeón52%
×Draw24%
Alberite25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tedeón
1.74
Alberite
1.13

Tedeón creates 54% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tedeón
0.88
Alberite
0.85

allows per match

Tedeón
1.41
Alberite
2.61

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par
Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

Alberite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw
75%
Tedeón or Alberite
76%
Draw or Alberite
48%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+
28%
Alberite wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals
82%
Tedeón 2+ goals
52%
Tedeón 3+ goals
25%
Alberite 1+ goals
68%
Alberite 2+ goals
31%
Alberite 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)
68%
Alberite (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

Alberite attack 0.85 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tedeón scores more
52%
level
24%
Alberite scores more
25%

Tedeón at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tedeón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tedeón vs Alberite

Tedeón beat Alberite 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Navarrete.