Tecnico Universitario 2–0 Orense SC: Result & Stats

Tecnico Universitario

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orense SC

B. Palacios 90'

D. Quintero 44'

8/30/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 8Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tecnico Universitario49%

×Draw24%

Orense SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.15

Tecnico Universitario

1.67

Orense SC

1.15

Tecnico Universitario creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.51

creates per match

1.09

1.21

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.51

Orense SC

1.09

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.21

Orense SC

1.82

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Tecnico Universitario-0.01on par

Orense SC+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

74%

Tecnico Universitario or Orense SC

76%

Draw or Orense SC

51%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

26%

Orense SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

81%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

50%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

23%

Orense SC 1+ goals

68%

Orense SC 2+ goals

32%

Orense SC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

65%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.51 + Orense SC defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Orense SC attack 1.09 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

49%

level

24%

Orense SC scores more

26%

Tecnico Universitario at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

37'

39'

42'

44'

D. Quintero↳ L. Estupiñán

53'

Alex Rangel

57'

Christian Cuero

61'

Oscar Esteban Quinonez Mendoza

63'

E. Pluas← A. Assis

63'

J. Rojas← J. Andrade

65'

B. Palacios← L. Estupiñán

70'

J. Jiménez← O. Mejía

79'

E. Montaño← L. Villagra

79'

W. Godoy← R. Calderón

85'

D. Armas← C. Cuero

85'

E. Carcelén← A. Rangel

86'

J. Kouffaty← R. Burbano

90'

B. Palacios↳ R. Luzárraga

Tecnico3-4-3

Orense4-4-2

34

Portocarr

25

▼

Villagra

21

▼

Andrade

15

▼

Assis

40

▼

Burbano

8

▼

50

55

3

24

12

1

14

17

4

A

Luzárraga

89

▼

Rangel

29

⚽

Quintero

37

Arboleda

5

▼

Mejía

7

A

▼

Estupiñán

9

Blanco

35

▼

Cuero

Manager: Iván Vázquez

65'▲B. Palacios←▼L. Estupiñán

70'▲J. Jiménez←▼O. Mejía

85'▲D. Armas←▼C. Cuero

85'▲E. Carcelén←▼A. Rangel

Tecnico Universitario substitutes

18Palacios21Jiménez8Armas31Carcelén12Valencia6Tutalchá23Villalva10Rodríguez40Chávez25Mina

Manager: J. León

63'▲E. Pluas←▼A. Assis

63'▲J. Rojas←▼J. Andrade

79'▲E. Montaño←▼L. Villagra

79'▲W. Godoy←▼R. Calderón

86'▲J. Kouffaty←▼R. Burbano

Orense SC substitutes

54Pluas9Rojas11Montaño6Godoy10Kouffaty26Corozo60Napa27Corozo52Quiñonez