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Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
3/11/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 4Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC46%
×Draw28%
Tecnico Universitario26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.36
Tecnico Universitario
0.95

Orense SC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 128 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.32
Tecnico Universitario
0.87

allows per match

Orense SC
1.02
Tecnico Universitario
1.41

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
74%
Orense SC or Tecnico Universitario
72%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
54%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
22%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
74%
Orense SC 2+ goals
39%
Orense SC 3+ goals
16%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
61%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
25%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
64%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.41 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.87 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orense SC scores more
46%
level
28%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
26%

Orense SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario

Orense SC beat Tecnico Universitario 2-1 in Liga Pro on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.