Tecnico Universitario 3–0 Libertad: Result & Stats

Tecnico Universitario

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Libertad

9/17/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tecnico Universitario45%

×Draw27%

Libertad29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Tecnico Universitario

1.41

Libertad

1.07

Tecnico Universitario creates 32% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 60 away

1.23

creates per match

0.92

1.23

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.23

Libertad

0.92

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.23

Libertad

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

71%

Tecnico Universitario or Libertad

73%

Draw or Libertad

55%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

21%

Libertad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

76%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

41%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

17%

Libertad 1+ goals

66%

Libertad 2+ goals

29%

Libertad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

61%

Libertad (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Libertad defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Libertad attack 0.92 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

45%

level

27%

Libertad scores more

29%

Tecnico Universitario at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff