Tecnico Universitario 0–2 LDU de Quito

Tecnico Universitario

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

LDU de Quito

11/9/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Tecnico Universitario34%

×Draw27%

LDU de Quito39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Tecnico Universitario

1.19

LDU de Quito

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 136 away

1.23

creates per match

1.37

1.23

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.23

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.23

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

61%

Tecnico Universitario or LDU de Quito

73%

Draw or LDU de Quito

66%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

14%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

70%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

33%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

12%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

73%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

37%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

46%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

34%

level

27%

LDU de Quito scores more

39%

LDU de Quito at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff