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LDU de Quito vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
5/31/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 15Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

LDU de Quito56%
×Draw24%
Tecnico Universitario19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.67
Tecnico Universitario
0.87

LDU de Quito creates 92% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 129 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.93
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
81%
LDU de Quito or Tecnico Universitario
76%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
44%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
31%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
81%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
50%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
23%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
58%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
22%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
74%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.93 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
56%
level
24%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
19%

LDU de Quito at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: LDU de Quito 3–2 Tecnico Universitario

LDU de Quito beat Tecnico Universitario 3-2 in Liga Pro on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.