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Tecnico Universitario vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
6/4/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 13Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Tecnico Universitario48%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil City FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.49
Guayaquil City FC
1.00

Tecnico Universitario creates 49% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 96 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Guayaquil City FC
1.75

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
75%
Tecnico Universitario or Guayaquil City FC
74%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
52%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
24%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
77%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
44%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
19%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
63%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
26%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
66%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.75 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
48%
level
26%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
25%

Tecnico Universitario at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tecnico Universitario vs Guayaquil City FC

Tecnico Universitario beat Guayaquil City FC 3-0 in Liga Pro on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.