Tecnico Universitario 0–0 Guayaquil City FC

Tecnico Universitario

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guayaquil City FC

12/17/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 14Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Tecnico Universitario47%

×Draw26%

Guayaquil City FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.01

Tecnico Universitario

1.46

Guayaquil City FC

1.01

Tecnico Universitario creates 45% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 96 away

1.22

creates per match

0.79

1.23

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.22

Guayaquil City FC

0.79

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.23

Guayaquil City FC

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Guayaquil City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

74%

Tecnico Universitario or Guayaquil City FC

74%

Draw or Guayaquil City FC

53%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

23%

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

77%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

43%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

18%

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

64%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

27%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

64%

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.23 · 129 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.70 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.22 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.79 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

47%

level

26%

Guayaquil City FC scores more

26%

Tecnico Universitario at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

D. Pineda← H. Patta

55'

J. Realpe← I. Zambrano

65'

A. Chávez← José Ayoví

69'

K. Sambonino

75'

A. Aguirre

76'

M. Parrales← M. Hoyos

76'

F. Caicedo← K. Sambonino

78'

E. Patta← E. Méndez

78'

R. Tello← C. Mosquera

86'

D. Viteri

87'

S. Castro← L. Cano

87'

J. Jiménez← G. Mastriani

90+2'

J. R. Tello Barre

90+5'

Tecnico

Guayaquil

25

2

23

19

11

▼

Hoyos

33

Téliz

27

Vargas

15

▼

Sambonino

6

▼

Cano

21

▼

Ayoví

9

▼

1

2

6

11

▼

Mosquera

22

Quintero

10

Muñoz

20

▼

Méndez

21

Jiménez

26

Santacruz

8

▼

Zambrano

7

▼

Patta

Manager: J. Hernández

38'▲D. Pineda←▼H. Patta

55'▲J. Realpe←▼I. Zambrano

78'▲E. Patta←▼E. Méndez

78'▲R. Tello←▼C. Mosquera

Tecnico Universitario substitutes

9Pineda33Realpe24Patta25Tello35Cruz23Cangá44Valencia

Manager: P. Gavilánez

65'▲A. Chávez←▼José Ayoví

76'▲M. Parrales←▼M. Hoyos

76'▲F. Caicedo←▼K. Sambonino

87'▲S. Castro←▼L. Cano

87'▲J. Jiménez←▼G. Mastriani

Guayaquil City FC substitutes

10Chávez49Parrales18Caicedo30Castro4Jiménez28Valle3Becerra8Cortéz14Castillo