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Tecnico Universitario vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
6/1/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Tecnico Universitario42%
×Draw27%
El Nacional32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.37
El Nacional
1.16

Tecnico Universitario creates 18% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 91 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
El Nacional
1.08

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
El Nacional
1.51

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
68%
Tecnico Universitario or El Nacional
73%
Draw or El Nacional
58%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
19%
El Nacional wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
75%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
40%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
16%
El Nacional 1+ goals
69%
El Nacional 2+ goals
32%
El Nacional 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
57%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

El Nacional attack 1.08 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
42%
level
27%
El Nacional scores more
32%

Tecnico Universitario at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tecnico Universitario vs El Nacional

El Nacional beat Tecnico Universitario 2-1 in Liga Pro on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.