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TEC vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

TEC
TEC
CANC
14:30
Volendam II
Volendam II
2/27/2021Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 22Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

TEC46%
×Draw22%
Volendam II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEC
1.92
Volendam II
1.56

TEC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 49 away

creates per match

TEC
1.26
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

TEC
1.52
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

TEC+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TEC or draw
68%
TEC or Volendam II
78%
Draw or Volendam II
54%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+
26%
Volendam II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals
85%
TEC 2+ goals
57%
TEC 3+ goals
30%
Volendam II 1+ goals
79%
Volendam II 2+ goals
46%
Volendam II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)
59%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 50 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.26 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.92

Volendam II attack 1.59 + TEC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TEC scores more
46%
level
22%
Volendam II scores more
32%

TEC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TEC host Volendam II

February 27, 2021: TEC take on Volendam II in Tweede Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TEC host Volendam II at Sportpark De Lok.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.