TEC 4–0 OFC Oostzaan: Result & Stats

TEC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

OFC Oostzaan

3/18/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 19Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEC60%

×Draw20%

OFC Oostzaan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TECExpected goals in this matchOFC Oostzaan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.11

TEC

2.13

OFC Oostzaan

1.11

TEC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

0.71

1.52

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

TEC

1.26

OFC Oostzaan

0.71

allows per match

TEC

1.52

OFC Oostzaan

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TEC+0.00on par

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

OFC Oostzaan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

TEC or draw

81%

TEC or OFC Oostzaan

80%

Draw or OFC Oostzaan

40%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+

37%

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals

88%

TEC 2+ goals

63%

TEC 3+ goals

35%

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

67%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

30%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)

76%

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 50 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.26 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + TEC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TEC scores more

60%

level

20%

OFC Oostzaan scores more

19%

TEC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff