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TEC vs Kloetinge — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TEC
TEC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kloetinge
Kloetinge
10/7/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 8Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEC49%
×Draw24%
Kloetinge27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEC
1.67
Kloetinge
1.18

TEC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

TEC
1.82
Kloetinge
1.59

allows per match

TEC
0.76
Kloetinge
1.51

finishing

TEC+0.00on par
Kloetinge+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

Kloetinge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TEC or draw
73%
TEC or Kloetinge
76%
Draw or Kloetinge
51%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+
26%
Kloetinge wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals
81%
TEC 2+ goals
50%
TEC 3+ goals
23%
Kloetinge 1+ goals
69%
Kloetinge 2+ goals
33%
Kloetinge 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)
64%
Kloetinge (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Kloetinge away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.82 + Kloetinge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kloetinge attack 1.59 + TEC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TEC scores more
49%
level
24%
Kloetinge scores more
27%

TEC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TEC vs Kloetinge

TEC and Kloetinge drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Lok in Tiel.