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TEC vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TEC
TEC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
9/17/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 5Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEC60%
×Draw23%
Groene Ster17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEC
1.83
Groene Ster
0.85

TEC creates 115% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

TEC
1.82
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

TEC
0.76
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

TEC+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

TEC or draw
83%
TEC or Groene Ster
77%
Draw or Groene Ster
40%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+
35%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals
84%
TEC 2+ goals
54%
TEC 3+ goals
28%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
57%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
21%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)
78%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.82 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.83

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + TEC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TEC scores more
60%
level
23%
Groene Ster scores more
17%

TEC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: TEC 0–0 Groene Ster

TEC and Groene Ster drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Lok in Tiel.