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TEC vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TEC
TEC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baronie
Baronie
9/2/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 3Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEC65%
×Draw20%
Baronie16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEC
2.19
Baronie
0.98

TEC creates 123% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

TEC
1.82
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

TEC
0.76
Baronie
2.56

finishing

TEC+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TEC or draw
84%
TEC or Baronie
80%
Draw or Baronie
35%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+
41%
Baronie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals
89%
TEC 2+ goals
64%
TEC 3+ goals
37%
Baronie 1+ goals
62%
Baronie 2+ goals
26%
Baronie 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)
80%
Baronie (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.82 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.19

Baronie attack 1.21 + TEC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

TEC scores more
65%
level
20%
Baronie scores more
16%

TEC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TEC 0 – 0 Baronie

TEC and Baronie drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Lok in Tiel.