TEC 1–1 Ajax Amateurs: Result & Stats

TEC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ajax Amateurs

9/22/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 6Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TEC46%

×Draw24%

Ajax Amateurs30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TECExpected goals in this matchAjax Amateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.29

TEC

1.64

Ajax Amateurs

1.29

TEC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

1.24

creates per match

1.12

1.47

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

TEC

1.24

Ajax Amateurs

1.12

allows per match

TEC

1.47

Ajax Amateurs

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TEC+0.00on par

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

Ajax Amateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

TEC or draw

70%

TEC or Ajax Amateurs

76%

Draw or Ajax Amateurs

54%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+

24%

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals

81%

TEC 2+ goals

49%

TEC 3+ goals

23%

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals

72%

Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals

37%

Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)

60%

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.24 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + TEC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TEC scores more

46%

level

24%

Ajax Amateurs scores more

30%

TEC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff