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Team Wiener Linien vs Neusiedl — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
FT
1 – 0
Neusiedl
Neusiedl
4/27/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 24Sportplatz Rax (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Team Wiener Linien47%
×Draw24%
Neusiedl29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Wiener Linien
1.69
Neusiedl
1.29

Team Wiener Linien creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 104 away

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Neusiedl
1.38

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.21
Neusiedl
1.84

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par
Neusiedl+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Neusiedl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw
71%
Team Wiener Linien or Neusiedl
76%
Draw or Neusiedl
53%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
25%
Neusiedl wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
82%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
50%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
24%
Neusiedl 1+ goals
72%
Neusiedl 2+ goals
37%
Neusiedl 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
61%
Neusiedl (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Neusiedl away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.84 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Neusiedl defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.69

Neusiedl attack 1.38 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more
47%
level
24%
Neusiedl scores more
29%

Team Wiener Linien at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Team Wiener Linien 1–0 Neusiedl

Team Wiener Linien beat Neusiedl 1-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax (Wien).