Team TG FF W 2–3 Växjö W: Result & Stats

Team TG FF W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Växjö W

P. Zarassi 45+1'

E. Åström 14'

E. Ijeh 71', 67'

Elin Nilsson 34'

11/5/2022

Elitettan · Round 26Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Team TG FF W10%

×Draw17%

Växjö W73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team TG FF WExpected goals in this matchVäxjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.38

Team TG FF W

0.77

Växjö W

2.38

Växjö W creates 209% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.08

creates per match

2.46

2.31

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Team TG FF W

1.08

Växjö W

2.46

allows per match

Team TG FF W

2.31

Växjö W

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Växjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team TG FF W ↓

Växjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Team TG FF W or draw

27%

Team TG FF W or Växjö W

83%

Draw or Växjö W

90%

Winning margin

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

3%

Växjö W wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

54%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

18%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

4%

Växjö W 1+ goals

91%

Växjö W 2+ goals

68%

Växjö W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

12%

Växjö W (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team TG FF W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Växjö W away — creates 2.46, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team TG FF W attack 1.08 + Växjö W defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.77

Växjö W attack 2.46 + Team TG FF W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Team TG FF W scores more

10%

level

17%

Växjö W scores more

73%

Växjö W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Växjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

E. Åström

22'

A. Sandstrom

34'

Elin Nilsson

45+1'

P. Zarassi

46'

M. Strömgren← M. Thomsen

67'

E. Ijeh

71'

E. Ijeh

75'

A. Svedberg← E. Ellman

84'

L. Engstrom

87'

A. Brännström← E. Åström

Team

Växjö

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Wikström

75'▲A. Svedberg←▼E. Ellman

87'▲A. Brännström←▼E. Åström

Team TG FF W substitutes

SvedbergBrännströmAnderssonWikströmNduwimana

Manager: O. Unogård

46'▲M. Strömgren←▼M. Thomsen

Växjö W substitutes

StrömgrenDahlKarlssonKarlsson