Team TG FF W 1–2 Uppsala W: Result & Stats

Team TG FF W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Uppsala W

E. Åström 54'

N. Robertson 37'

J. Renmark 26'

9/10/2022

Elitettan · Round 19Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Team TG FF W18%

×Draw20%

Uppsala W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team TG FF WExpected goals in this matchUppsala W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.15

Team TG FF W

1.05

Uppsala W

2.15

Uppsala W creates 105% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 52 away

1.08

creates per match

1.98

2.31

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Team TG FF W

1.08

Uppsala W

1.98

allows per match

Team TG FF W

2.31

Uppsala W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Uppsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team TG FF W ↓

Uppsala W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Team TG FF W or draw

38%

Team TG FF W or Uppsala W

80%

Draw or Uppsala W

82%

Winning margin

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

6%

Uppsala W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

65%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

28%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

9%

Uppsala W 1+ goals

88%

Uppsala W 2+ goals

63%

Uppsala W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

22%

Uppsala W (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team TG FF W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Uppsala W away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team TG FF W attack 1.08 + Uppsala W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Uppsala W attack 1.98 + Team TG FF W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Team TG FF W scores more

18%

level

20%

Uppsala W scores more

62%

Uppsala W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Uppsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Renmark

37'

N. Robertson

54'

E. Åström

64'

A. Svedberg← A. Uvell

64'

E. Fors← E. Ellman

64'

P. Zarassi← A. Brännström

78'

E. Lenir← B. Jenkins

80'

L. Engström← T. Wikström

90+3'

E. Gunnarsson← Rosita

Team

Uppsala

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Wikström

64'▲A. Svedberg←▼A. Uvell

64'▲E. Fors←▼E. Ellman

64'▲P. Zarassi←▼A. Brännström

80'▲L. Engström←▼T. Wikström

Team TG FF W substitutes

SvedbergForsZarassiEngströmWiklundDahlin

Manager: J. Valfridsson

78'▲E. Lenir←▼B. Jenkins

90+3'▲E. Gunnarsson←▼Rosita

Uppsala W substitutes

LenirGunnarssonGraversenLarssonLefflerBaudouWiberg

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Uppsala W

Uppsala W beat Team TG FF W 2-1 in Elitettan on September 10, 2022.

Goals: J. Renmark (26'), N. Robertson (37'), E. Åström (54').

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.

Team TG FF W vs Uppsala W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Uppsala W