Team TG FF W 0–1 Sunnanå W: Result & Stats

Team TG FF W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sunnanå W

N. Jakobsson 22'

5/9/2025

Elitettan · Round 5Umea Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Team TG FF W33%

×Draw23%

Sunnanå W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team TG FF WExpected goals in this matchSunnanå W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.72

Team TG FF W

1.45

Sunnanå W

1.72

Sunnanå W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

1.12

2.31

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Team TG FF W

1.08

Sunnanå W

1.12

allows per match

Team TG FF W

2.31

Sunnanå W

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Sunnanå W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team TG FF W ↓

Sunnanå W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Team TG FF W or draw

56%

Team TG FF W or Sunnanå W

77%

Draw or Sunnanå W

67%

Winning margin

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

15%

Sunnanå W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

77%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

42%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

18%

Sunnanå W 1+ goals

82%

Sunnanå W 2+ goals

51%

Sunnanå W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

43%

Sunnanå W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team TG FF W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Sunnanå W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team TG FF W attack 1.08 + Sunnanå W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sunnanå W attack 1.12 + Team TG FF W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Team TG FF W scores more

33%

level

23%

Sunnanå W scores more

44%

Sunnanå W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sunnanå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

22'

48'

68'

69'

69'

E. Widesjo← M. Vaglund

69'

H. Boubezari← E. Norlin

80'

E. Grenholm← A. Nabb

80'

E. Dahlin← J. Wikstrom

80'

K. Hetta← F. Ekstrand

89'

S. Lindmark← K. Lindback

90+1'

E. Widesjo

90+1'

T. Dahlqvist← T. Bergsten

Team

Sunnanå

2

▼

3

4

5

6

7

11

12

▼

Ekstrand

10

⚽

Jakobsson

15

▼

Bergsten

24

Sjogren

1

Wallner

3

▼

Davis

2

Lundgren

6

Lindstrom

14

▼

Norlin

12

Nyberg

21

▼

Nabb

20

▼

Wikstrom

37

Johansson

26

Mellouk

19

▼

Vaglund

Manager: J. Wikström

69'▲I. Olsson←▼B. Davis

69'▲E. Widesjo←▼M. Vaglund

69'▲H. Boubezari←▼E. Norlin

80'▲E. Grenholm←▼A. Nabb

80'▲E. Dahlin←▼J. Wikstrom

Team TG FF W substitutes

30Wallner5Olsson8Grenholm11Dahlin15Widesjo18Boubezari24Ritzen

Manager: F. Markström

80'▲K. Hetta←▼F. Ekstrand

89'▲S. Lindmark←▼K. Lindback

90+1'▲T. Dahlqvist←▼T. Bergsten

Sunnanå W substitutes

13Lundqvist14Sodergren16Hetta17Dahlqvist19Forslund25Lindmark

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Sunnanå W

Sunnanå W beat Team TG FF W 1-0 in Elitettan on May 9, 2025.

Goals: N. Jakobsson (22').

The match was played at Umea Energi Arena SOL in Umea.

Team TG FF W vs Sunnanå W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Sunnanå W