Team TG FF W 0–5 Norrköping W: Result & Stats

Team TG FF W

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Norrköping W

T. Alvberger 79'

M. Asperot 42', 28', 2'

S. Ravnell 18'

6/12/2022

Elitettan · Round 11Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Team TG FF W16%

×Draw19%

Norrköping W65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team TG FF WExpected goals in this matchNorrköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.21

Team TG FF W

1.00

Norrköping W

2.21

Norrköping W creates 121% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

2.12

2.31

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Team TG FF W

1.08

Norrköping W

2.12

allows per match

Team TG FF W

2.31

Norrköping W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team TG FF W ↓

Norrköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Team TG FF W or draw

35%

Team TG FF W or Norrköping W

81%

Draw or Norrköping W

84%

Winning margin

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

5%

Norrköping W wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

63%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

26%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

8%

Norrköping W 1+ goals

89%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

65%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

20%

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team TG FF W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team TG FF W attack 1.08 + Norrköping W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Norrköping W attack 2.12 + Team TG FF W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Team TG FF W scores more

16%

level

19%

Norrköping W scores more

65%

Norrköping W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

18'

28'

42'

52'

A. Sandstrom

57'

J. Egeriis← M. Wiklander

57'

S. Berggren← C. Flenhagen

62'

E. Fors← A. Svedberg

68'

E. Johansson← S. Ravnell

68'

T. Alvberger← L. Gustafsson

73'

L. Lundgren← F. Wiklund

79'

T. Alvberger

80'

E. Viksten← A. Westman

80'

L. Engström← E. Ellman

82'

A. Jeppson← I. Cajlakovič

Team

Norrköping

▼

▼

⚽3

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Wikström

62'▲E. Fors←▼A. Svedberg

73'▲L. Lundgren←▼F. Wiklund

80'▲E. Viksten←▼A. Westman

80'▲L. Engström←▼E. Ellman

Team TG FF W substitutes

ForsLundgrenVikstenEngström

Manager: T. Fredheim

57'▲J. Egeriis←▼M. Wiklander

57'▲S. Berggren←▼C. Flenhagen

68'▲E. Johansson←▼S. Ravnell

68'▲T. Alvberger←▼L. Gustafsson

82'▲A. Jeppson←▼I. Cajlakovič

Norrköping W substitutes

EgeriisBerggrenJohanssonAlvbergerJeppson

Elitettan: Team TG FF W 0–5 Norrköping W

Norrköping W beat Team TG FF W 5-0 in Elitettan on June 12, 2022.

Goals: M. Asperot (2', 28', 42'), S. Ravnell (18'), T. Alvberger (79').

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.

Team TG FF W vs Norrköping W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: Team TG FF W 0–5 Norrköping W