Team TG FF W 2–1 Bergdalens W: Result & Stats

Team TG FF W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bergdalens W

E. Åström 50'

A. Sandström 33'

I. Bergström 75'

6/4/2022

Elitettan · Round 10Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Team TG FF W36%

×Draw23%

Bergdalens W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team TG FF WExpected goals in this matchBergdalens W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.73

Team TG FF W

1.61

Bergdalens W

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

2.31

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Team TG FF W

1.08

Bergdalens W

1.15

allows per match

Team TG FF W

2.31

Bergdalens W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Bergdalens W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team TG FF W ↓

Bergdalens W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Team TG FF W or draw

59%

Team TG FF W or Bergdalens W

77%

Draw or Bergdalens W

64%

Winning margin

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

18%

Bergdalens W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

80%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

48%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

22%

Bergdalens W 1+ goals

82%

Bergdalens W 2+ goals

52%

Bergdalens W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

47%

Bergdalens W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team TG FF W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Bergdalens W away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team TG FF W attack 1.08 + Bergdalens W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bergdalens W attack 1.15 + Team TG FF W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Team TG FF W scores more

36%

level

23%

Bergdalens W scores more

41%

Bergdalens W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bergdalens W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

A. Sandström

50'

E. Åström

61'

M. Wrångemyr← N. Andersson

63'

H. Jiozon← J. Gilkes

64'

A. Uvell← M. Norberg

75'

I. Bergström

77'

E. Johansson← K. Jonsson

82'

J. Bjornler

83'

E. Fors← A. Sandström

83'

P. Zarassi← E. Åström

83'

A. Persson← L. Malmström

89'

A. Svedberg← E. Ellman

Team

Bergdalens

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Åström

▼

Ellman

⚽

▼

Sandström

Manager: J. Wikström

64'▲A. Uvell←▼M. Norberg

83'▲E. Fors←▼A. Sandström

83'▲P. Zarassi←▼E. Åström

89'▲A. Svedberg←▼E. Ellman

Team TG FF W substitutes

UvellForsZarassiSvedbergWestmanAnderssonVikström

Manager: L. Liljegärd

61'▲M. Wrångemyr←▼N. Andersson

63'▲H. Jiozon←▼J. Gilkes

77'▲E. Johansson←▼K. Jonsson

83'▲A. Persson←▼L. Malmström

Bergdalens W substitutes

WrångemyrJiozonJohanssonPerssonDavidssonGustavsson

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Bergdalens W

Team TG FF W beat Bergdalens W 2-1 in Elitettan on June 4, 2022.

Goals: A. Sandström (33'), E. Åström (50'), I. Bergström (75').

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.

Team TG FF W vs Bergdalens W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Bergdalens W