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Team Rhino vs TMT — GFA League 2020

Team Rhino
Team Rhino
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
TMT
TMT
Unknown 61'
B. Sidibeh 44'
M. Camara 32' (pen)
6/22/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Team Rhino35%
×Draw34%
TMT31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Rhino
0.87
TMT
0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Team Rhino
0.87
TMT
0.67

allows per match

Team Rhino
0.95
TMT
0.87

finishing

Team Rhino+0.00on par
TMT+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Rhino ↓

TMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Team Rhino or draw
69%
Team Rhino or TMT
66%
Draw or TMT
65%

Winning margin

Team Rhino wins by 2+
12%
TMT wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Team Rhino 1+ goals
58%
Team Rhino 2+ goals
22%
Team Rhino 3+ goals
6%
TMT 1+ goals
56%
TMT 2+ goals
19%
TMT 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Team Rhino (draw refunded)
53%
TMT (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Rhino at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

TMT away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Rhino attack 0.87 + TMT defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.87

TMT attack 0.67 + Team Rhino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Team Rhino scores more
35%
level
34%
TMT scores more
31%

Team Rhino at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Team Rhino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
32'
M. CamaraPenalty
44'
B. Sidibeh
61'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Team Rhino 1 – 2 TMT

TMT beat Team Rhino 2-1 in GFA League on June 22, 2026.

Goals: M. Camara (32' pen), B. Sidibeh (44'), ? (61').